Candidates for office in 2014 are releasing their required quarterly fundraising reports this month. As readers of the California Briefing know, the Golden State has a handful of competitive House races next year, and the candidates’ fundraising is a good indicator of how serious – and potentially challenging – their campaigns will be.
CA07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera from Sacramento County is the only other Congressman who is expected to face a competitive race to raise over $300K – he raised $303,000 this quarter. Bera narrowly defeated GOP incumbent Dan Lungren last year by only 4-points, and Republicans see his seat as low-hanging fruit to take back in 2014. In fact, at least three Republicans, Elizabeth Emken, Doug Ose, and Ted Gaines, have already expressed public interest in challenging Bera.
CA10: Freshman Republican Rep. Jeff Denham brought in a respectable $215,000 this quarter. He will most likely face a tough re-election fight, having only won with 52% of the vote in 2012. The NRCC has identified him as a vulnerable incumbent and, if a Democrat can mount a credible campaign, he will be locked in a tight race straight to Election Day.
CA26: Yet another freshman Democrat, Julia Brownley, is on the 2014 watch list, and she raised $235,000 this quarter. Republican Tony Strickland, who Brownley narrowly defeated last year by 6-points, has already filed for a rematch.
CA31: Republican Rep. Gary Miller only filed for re-election this month, but he’s already facing a daunting campaign to keep his seat in Congress. Two high-profile Democrats, Pete Aguilar and Joe Baca, have already begun building their campaigns for the 36th District, a district that Obama won last year with 57% of the vote. Miller will need to build up a sizable war chest just to remain competitive in this Democratic-leaning environment. He only raised $78,000 this quarter, according to his FEC report, although he already has $415,000 cash on hand to spend. Nevertheless, if Miller wants to stay competitive, he’s going to need to bulk up his fundraising significantly heading into next year.
CA36: Freshman Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz from Palm Desert led the pack this quarter as far as fundraising is concerned. According to his FEC reports, Ruiz raised $345,000 between January 1 and March 31, an impressive sum for a freshman incumbent two years out from his re-election. The race for the 36th District will be one of the most competitive next year – Ruiz narrowly defeated Republican Mary Bono Mack last year in a high-profile race that attracted more than $6 million in spending, and Republicans think that, given the right political conditions, the GOP can take it back. Assemblyman Brian Nestande, also from Palm Desert, has already filed the paperwork to mount a challenge against Ruiz, but because he filed after the deadline he will not have to report his fundraising to the FEC until the next quarter. Nestande, who has long-standing connections with both the desert region and with Washington, will have to prove he can raise a hefty sum simply to compete.
CA52: Another freshman Democrat, Rep. Scott Peters of San Diego, reported a haul of $258,000 this quarter. He only defeated his opponent last year, incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray, by less than 7,000 votes, and Republicans are looking to win the seat back. So far, no one on the GOP side has formally declared intentions to run next year, but Peters isn’t letting any time go to waste.
